A Tale Of Two Forecasts

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For anyone following the coming elections, decent projections of the outcome can be hard to come by. Personally, I look for projections that let me know what the projected make-up of congress will ultimately look like. To that end, I keep my eyes on two sites: electoral-vote.com and cqpolitics.com.

Electoral-vote.com builds their ratings of district results based on poling trends. As it stands today (10/4/2006), they are showing nearly a tie in both chambers.

Cqpolitics.com compiles their ratings in an undisclosed manner that seems to take into account some poling, historical trends and current events. As of today, they show republicans with a 15 seat majority in the house, 5 seat majority in the senate, and 4 state deficit in governor races. They do have some seats in each race they believe have no clear favorite so they don't attribute them to either party; they are: 12, 7, and 8 respectively.

As you can imagine, it is difficult to reconcile the two pictures in your head; but, if you take an average of the two, splitting the CQ 'no clear favorites' evenly, you get the following:

House: R-221, D-214
Senate: R-51, D-49

Even if you look at the more optimistic of these two, it is not entirely clear that the Democrats will rush into power on election day. If you've previously come to that conclusion, and are either excited or disappointed by it, you might want to rethink your conclusions.

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Read More About:   Elections | Politics | United States